1. R. Lampe and S. McRae, "Self-regulation vs state regulation: Evidence from cinema age restrictions", International Journal of Industrial Organization. Volume 75, 102708, March, 2021.
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of self-regulation on the leniency of cinema age restrictions using cross-country variation in the classifications applied to 1,922 movies released in 31 countries between 2002 and 2011. Our data show that restrictive classifications reduce box office revenues, particularly for movies with wide box office appeal. These data also show that self-regulated ratings agencies display greater leniency than state-regulated agencies when classifying movies with wide appeal. However, consistent with theoretical models of self-regulation, the degree of leniency is small because it is not costly for governments to intervene and regulate ratings themselves.
2. Emilio Gutierrez and Adrian Rubli, "Shocks to Hospital Occupancy and Mortality: Evidence from the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic", Management Science. July, 2021.
Abstract:
Existing literature suggests that hospital occupancy matters for quality of care, as measured by various patient outcomes. However, estimating the causal effect of increased hospital busyness on in-hospital mortality remains an elusive task due to statistical power challenges and the difficulty in separating shocks to occupancy from changes in patient composition. Using data from a large public hospital system in Mexico, we estimate the impact of congestion on in-hospital mortality by exploiting the shock in hospitalizations induced by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, instrumenting hospital admissions due to acute respiratory infections (ARIs) with measures of ARI cases at nearby healthcare facilities as a proxy for the size of the local outbreak. Our instrumental-variables estimates show that a 1% increase in ARI admissions in 2009 led to a 0.25% increase in non-ARI in-hospital mortality. We show that these effects are nonlinear in the size of the local outbreak, consistent with the existence of tipping points. We further show that effects are concentrated at hospitals with limited infrastructure, suggesting that supply-side policies that improve patient assignment across hospitals and strategically increase hospital capacity could mitigate some of the negative impacts. We discuss managerial implications, suggesting that up to 25%–30% of our estimated deaths at small and non-intensive-care-unit hospitals could have been averted by reallocating patients to reduce congestion.
This paper was accepted by Carri Chan, healthcare management.
3. Enrique Seira, Yoichi Sugita and Kensuke Teshima, " Assortative Matching of Exporters and Importers" , June 2021 Accepted at the Review of Economics and Statistics.
Abstract:
This paper examines how exporting and importing firms match based on their capability by investigating how trade liberalization reshapes such exporter–importer matching. During the recent liberalization on the Mexico-US textile/apparel trade, exporters and importers often switch their main partners as well as change trade volumes. We develop a many-to-many matching model of exporters and importers where partner switching is the principal margin of adjustment, featuring Beckerian positive assortative matching by capability. Trade liberalization achieves efficient global buyer–supplier matching and improves consumer welfare by inducing systematic partner switching. The data confirm the predicted partner switching patterns.
4. Enrique Seira, Emilio Gutierrez and Arturo Aguilar, "The Effectiveness of Sin Food Taxes: Evidence from Mexico ", Journal of Health Economics, Volume 77, 2021.
Abstract:
We measure the effect of a large nationwide tax reform on sugar-added drinks and caloric-dense food introduced in Mexico in 2014. Using scanner data containing weekly purchases of 47,973 barcodes by 8,130 households and an RD design, we find that calories purchased from taxed drinks and taxed food decreased respectively by 2.7% and 3%. However, this was compensated by increases from untaxed categories, such that total calories purchased did not change. We find increases in cholesterol (12.6%), sodium (5.8%), saturated fat (3.1%), carbohydrates (2%), and proteins (3.8%).
5. Sirus H. Dehdari, Jaakko Merilainen and Sven Oskarsson, "Selective abstention in simultaneous elections: Understanding the turnout gap". Electoral Studies, Volume 71. June 2021.
Abstract:
If two elections are held at the same day, why do some people choose to vote in one but to abstain in another? We argue that selective abstention is driven by the same factors that determine voter turnout. Our empirical analysis focuses on Sweden where the (aggregate) turnout gap between local and national elections has been about 2–3%. Rich administrative register data reveal that people from higher socio-economic backgrounds, immigrants, women, older individuals, and people who have been less geographically mobile are less likely to selectively abstain.
6. Aguilar, Arturo, Emilio Gutiérrez, and Paula Soto Villagrán. "Benefits and Unintended Consequences of Gender Segregation in Public Transportation: Evidence from Mexico City’s Subway System." Economic Development and Cultural Change 69, no. 4 (2021): 000-000.
Abstract:
Public transportation is a basic everyday activity. Costs imposed by violence might have far-reaching consequences. We conduct a survey and exploit the discontinuity in the hours of operation of a program that reserves subway cars exclusively for women in Mexico City. The program seems to be successful at reducing sexual harassment toward women by 2.9 percentage points. However, it produces unintended consequences by increasing nonsexual aggression incidents (e.g., insults, shoving) among men by 15.3 percentage points. Both sexual and nonsexual violence seem to be costly; however, our results do not imply that costs of the program outweigh its benefits.
8. Arturo Aguilar, Emilio Gutierrez and Paula Soto, " Benefits and Unintended Consequences of Gernder Segregation in Public Transportation: Evidence from Mexico City's Surbway System",Economic Development and Cultural Change, 64 (4), pp. 1379-1410. July 2021.
Abstract:
Public transportation is a basic everyday activity. Costs imposed by violence might have far-reaching consequences. We conduct a survey and exploit the discontinuity in the hours of operation of a program that reserves subway cars exclusively for women in Mexico City. The program seems to be successful at reducing sexual harassment toward women by 2.9 percentage points. However, it produces unintended consequences by increasing nonsexual aggression incidents (e.g., insults, shoving) among men by 15.3 percentage points. Both sexual and nonsexual violence seem to be costly; however, our results do not imply that costs of the program outweigh its benefits.
9. Abhit Bhandari, Horacio Larreguy, John Marshall, "Able and Mostly Willing: An Empirical Anatomy of Information's Effect on Voter-Driven Accountability in Senegal", American Journal of Plotical Science, 4 March, 2021.
Abstract:
Political accountability may be constrained by the reach and relevance of information campaigns in developing democracies and—upon receiving information—voters' ability and will to hold politicians accountable. To illuminate voter-level constraints and information relevance absent dissemination constraints, we conducted a field experiment around Senegal's 2017 parliamentary elections to examine the core theoretical steps linking receiving different types of incumbent performance information to electoral and nonelectoral accountability. Voters immediately processed information as Bayesians, found temporally benchmarked local performance outcomes particularly informative, and updated their beliefs for at least a month. Learning that incumbents generally performed better than expected, voters durably requested greater politician contact after elections while incumbent vote choice increased among likely voters and voters prioritizing local projects when appraising incumbents. In contrast, information about incumbent duties did not systematically influence beliefs or accountability. These findings suggest voters were able and mostly willing to use relevant information to hold politicians to account.
10. Leopoldo Fergusson, Horacio Larreguy and Juan Felipe Riaño, "Political Competition and State Capacity Evidence from a Land Allocation Program in Mexico", Conditionally accepted at the Economic Journal.
Abstract:
We develop a model of the politics of state strengthening undertaken by incumbent parties that have a comparative advantage in clientelism rather than in public good provision. The model suggests that, when politically challenged by opponents, clientelistic incumbents may oppose investing in state capacity. We provide empirical support for the model’s implications using policy decisions that reflect local state capacity choices, and a difference-in-differences identification strategy that exploits a national shock that threatened the Mexican Institutional Revolutionary Party hegemony in the early 1960s with varying intensity across the various Mexican municipalities.
11. T. Hoshino and T. Kamada "Third-Party Policing Approaches against Organized Crime: an Evaluation of the Yakuza Exclusion Ordinances", Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 37, pages791–811 (2021).
Abstract:
Third-party policing (TPP) refers to police efforts to persuade or coerce third parties to take some responsibility for crime control and prevention. The Yakuza Exclusion Ordinances (YEOs) of Japan aim to combat organized crime syndicates—the Yakuza. Consistent with the principles of TPP, the YEOs prohibit third parties (i.e., non-yakuza individuals) from providing any benefit to the yakuza. We argue that the effectiveness of the YEOs may depend on the strategic relationship among yakuza syndicates, where yakuza syndicates choose their power strategically to gain advantages over competition among rival yakuza syndicates.
12. M. Romero and S. Saavedra."Communal Property Rights and Deforestation", Journal of Development Studies. (2021)
Abstract:
Almost a third of the world’s forest area is communally managed. In principle, this arrangement could lead to a ‘tragedy of the commons’ and therefore more deforestation. But it may be easier to monitor outsiders’ deforestation of land owned by a community rather than an individual. We present a theoretical framework to examine these trade-offs and empirically study the effect of communal titling on deforestation in Colombia. Our empirical approach uses a differences-in-discontinuities strategy that compares areas just outside and inside a title, before and after titling. We find that deforestation decreased in communal areas after titling, especially in small communities, which is consistent with the model’s predictions. We also find evidence of positive spillovers: titling reduced deforestation in nearby areas outside the title (and thus our estimates are a lower bound of the total effects of communal titling on deforestation).
13. Santiago Saavedra, Maurico Romero, "Local incentives and national tax evasion: The response of illegal mining to a tax reform in Colombia" European Economic Review, Volume 138, September 2021,
Abstract:
Achieving a fair distribution of resources is one of the goals of fical policy. To this end, governments often transfer tax resources from richer to more marginalized areas. In the context of mining in Colombia, we study whether lower transfers to the locality where the taxed economic activity takes place dampen local authorities’ incentives to curb tax evasion. Using machine learning predictions on satellite imagery to identify mines allows us to overcome the challenge of measuring evasion. Employing difference-in-differences strategies, we find that reducing the share of revenue transferred back to mining municipalities leads to an increase in illegal mining. This result highlights the difficulties inherent in adequately redistributing tax revenues.
14. Shaun McRae and Frank Wolak, "Retail pricing in Colombia to support the efficient deployment of distributed generation and electric stoves", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2021, 102541.
Abstract:
Electricity tariff reform is an essential part of the clean energy transition. Existing tariffs encourage the over-adoption of residential solar systems and the under-adoption of electric alternatives to fossil fuels. However, an efficient tariff based on fixed charges and marginal cost pricing may harm low-income households. We propose an alternative methodology for setting fixed charges based on each household’s willingness to pay to consume electricity at marginal cost. Using household-level data from Colombia, we demonstrate the short-run and long-run distortions from the existing tariffs and how our new methodology could provide the economic, environmental, and health benefits from adopting clean energy technologies while still protecting low-income households from higher bills.
15. Emilio Gutierrez, Jaakko Meriläinen, Adrian Rubli. "Electoral Repercussions of a Pandemic: Evidence from the 2009 H1N1, Outbreak", Journal of Politics, Posted: 9 Aug 2020 Last revised: 3 Nov 2021.
Abstract:
Do electorally concerned politicians have an incentive to contain epidemics when public-health interventions may have an economic cost? We revisit the first pandemic of the 21st century and study the electoral consequences of the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Mexico. Leveraging detailed administrative data and a difference-in-differences approach, we document a statistically significant, negative effect of local epidemic outbreaks on the electoral performance of the governing party. The effect (i) is not driven by differences in containment policies; (ii) implies that the epidemic may have shifted outcomes of close electoral races; (iii) persists at least three years after the pandemic. Part of the negative impact on incumbent vote share can be attributed to a decrease in turnout, and the findings are also in line with voters learning about the effectiveness of government policies or incumbent competence.