2023-1. Araico Cordero, Armando, Antonella Bandiera, Esteban A. González Luna, and Jaakko Meriläinen. "Paving the Path for More Women? Uncovering the Effects of Increased Female Representation." 2023.
Abstract:
Do electoral successes of women pave the path for more female representation? We study whether gender parity can be self-sustaining and self-reinforcing in Finland, a pioneer of gender equality. To do so, we construct a database of local elections between 1996 and 2021 and leverage election lotteries that occur in case of tied races for causal identification. Our main finding is that parties that elect more women by chance also elect more women in subsequent elections. Yet, this effect is driven by voters of other parties reallocating their support to female candidates within parties that experienced lotteries. Consequently, the overall representation of women does not improve. Our results nevertheless indicate that a more diverse pool of elected representatives can positively impact political parties' electoral outcomes.
2023-2. Antonio Aguirre and Ignacio N. Lobato “Evidence of Non-fundamentalness in OECD Capital Stocks”. December 14, 2023.
Abstract:
This note examines evidence of non-fundamentalness in the rate of variation of annual per capita capital stock for OECD countries in the period 1955-2020. Leeper et al. (2013) proposed a theoretical model in which, due to agents performing fiscal foresight, this economic series could exhibit a non-fundamental behavior (in particular, a non-invertible moving average component), which has important implications for modeling and forecasting. Using the methodology proposed in Velasco and Lobato (2018), which delivers consistent estimators of the autoregressive and moving average parameters without imposing fundamentalness assumptions, we empirically examine whether the capital data is better represented with an invertible or a non-invertible moving average model. We and strong evidence in favor of the non-invertible representation since for the countries that present signi cant innovation asymmetry, the selected model is predominantly non-invertible.