21-01. Alexander Elbittar, Andrei Gomberg, Dario Trujano-Ochoa, Citizen Candidates in a Lab. April 20, 2021
Abstract:
We present results of a lab experimental study of candidate entry in a citizencandidate environment under plurality and run-off electoral systems, varying both entry costs and ideal points of the potential candidates. The comparative predictions of the citizen-candidate model are shown to hold; however, subjects exhibit substantial degree of over-entry from electorally disadvantaged positions.
21-02. Diego Jiménez-Hernández Enrique Seira, "Should the Government Sell You Goods? Evidence from the Milk Market in Mexico", January 4, 2021.
Abstract:
We study a nationwide welfare program in Mexico in which the government, in an effort to eliminate hunger, sells milk to households at subsidized rates via a network of thousands of specialized “ration stores.” Existing in many countries, such direct-provision programs often appear puzzling to economists, as it seems unlikely that the government would have any comparative advantage over the private market in procuring and distributing milk. To understand direct provision, we develop and estimate an equilibrium model of the market, then use the model to compare this program against natural (budget-neutral) alternatives, such as milk vouchers or unrestricted cash transfers. Using rich household-level panel data and the variation generated by the staggered introduction of new government stores, we show that market power by private milk suppliers is an important concern and that government-sold and privately-sold milk are close (though imperfect) substitutes. Consequently, direct provision plays an important role in the milk market in Mexico by disciplining private-milk prices. Indeed, our results suggest that in the absence of government milk, private market prices would be 3% higher. Moreover, direct provision generates 4% more gains in consumer welfare relative to milk vouchers and 2% more relative to unrestricted cash transfers.
21-03. Jaako Merilainen, Matti Mitrunen and Tuomo Virkola. "The Violent Origins of Finnish Equality". June 15, 2021.
Abstract:
A prominent hypothesis suggests that violent uprisings against the ruling elites have played an important role in shaping the distribution of power and prosperity. This paper employs newly-collected historical data from Finland to evaluate this hypothesis. We document that the country had extreme levels of inequality in terms of income and land distribution until a violent uprising in 1918. We find that the high inequality partly originated from the famine of 1866-1868 which increased the concentration of land and power to large landowners. We further show that regions with more exposure to the famine had worse labor market outcomes and more coercion by the early 1900s. Using unique micro-data on all the casualties of the Finnish Civil War, we demonstrate that the famine contributed to insurgency participation through these factors. Although unsuccessful in replacing the government, the insurgency led to significant policy changes, including radical land redistribution and a full extension of the franchise. A more drastic shift towards equality occurred in locations that were more affected by the famine and that had higher levels of pre-conflict inequality and more insurgents. Our findings highlight the importance of conflict and institutional change as determinants of modern-day outcomes.
21-04. Rafael Hortala-Vallve, Jaakko Meriläinen and Janne Tukiainen, "Pre-Electoral Coalitions: Insights into the Boundaries of Political Parties", May 26, 2021.
Abstract:
We evaluate the causes and consequences of pre-electoral coalitions (PECs). In Finland, local elections use open-list PR, and parties may form joint lists. We document that PECs are more common between parties of equal size and similar ideology, and when elections are more disproportional or involve more parties. Using both difference-in-differences and density discontinuity designs we show that voters punish coalescing parties, especially if they are ideologically diverse, and also respond to PECs by targeting personal votes strategically. Moreover, small parties become more likely to acquire political leadership positions. Finally, PECs seem to be formed also with the particular purpose of influencing the overall distribution of political power: they lead to more dispersed seat distributions and prevent absolute majorities in close elections. Our findings shed light on the boundaries of political parties: voter ideology and electoral rules create natural boundaries for the parties, yet party formateurs also consider wider impacts.
21-05. Torun Dewan, Christopher Kam, Jaakko Merilainen and Jane Tukiainen, "Class, Social Mobility, and Voting: Evidence from Historical Voting Records", January 4, 2021.
Abstract:
We explore the connection between social class, social mobility, and voting behavior in nineteenth-century England. To avoid pitfalls associated with survey or aggregate data on voting behavior, we use administrative longitudinal records preceding secret ballot on voters’ choices and occupation. These data reveal that the landed gentry, farm workers, non-skilled workers and white-collar workers voted, on average, more for the Conservatives, and petty bourgeoisie and skilled workers for the Liberals. The changes in voting behavior within individuals due to social mobility are immediate and mainly consistent with the same cleavage. Our interpretation is that voting was influenced by economic incentives.
21-06. David A. Jaeger, Jaime Arellano- Bover, Krzysztof Karbownik,Marta Martínez Matute, John M. Nunley, R. Alan Seals, Jr., Miguel Almunia, Mackenzie alston, Sascha O. Beker, Pilar, Beneito, René Böheim, Jos.e E. Boscá, Jessica H. Brown, Simon Chang, Deborah A. Coob-Clark, Shooshan Danagoulian, Sandra Donnally, Marissa Eckrote-Nordland, Lidia Farré, Javier Ferri, Margherita fort, Jane cooley Fruewirth, Rebecca Gelding, Allen C. goodman, Melanie Guldi, Simone Häckl, Janet, Hankin, Scott A. Imberman, Joanna Lahey, Joan Llull, Hani Mansour, Isaac McFarlin, Jaakko Meriläinen, Tove Mortlund, Martin Nybom, Stepehn D. O'Connell, Rupert Sausgruber, Amy Schwartz, Jan Stuhler, Petra Thiemann, Roel Van Veldhuizen, Marianne H. Wanamaker,, Maria Zhu. "IZA DP No. 14419: The Global COVID-19 Student Survey: First Wave Results". June, 2021.
Abstract:
University students have been particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We present results from the first wave of the Global COVID-19 Student Survey, which was administered at 28 universities in the United States, Spain, Australia, Sweden, Austria, Italy, and Mexico between April and October 2020. The survey addresses contemporaneous outcomes and future expectations regarding three fundamental aspects of students' lives in the pandemic: the labor market, education, and health. We document the differential responses of students as a function of their country of residence, parental income, gender, and for the US their race.
21-07. Christian Johansson, Anders Kärnä and Jaakko Meriläinen. "Vox Populi, Vox Dei? Tacit Collusion in Politics", June 21, 2021.
Abstract:
We study competition between political parties in repeated elections with probabilistic voting, allowing a multidimensional policy space and multiple political parties. This model entails multiple equilibria. When parties hold different opinions on some policy, they may take different policy positions that do not coincide with the median voter’s preferred policy platform but converge towards it. In contrast, when parties have a mutual understanding on a particular policy, their policy positions may converge (on some dimension) but not to the median voter’s preferred policy. Parties may collude with one another and take a position that differs from what the median voter prefers, despite political competition. Collusion may collapse, for instance, after the entry of a new political party. We substantiate the theoretical arguments with descriptive evidence using Swedish survey data on politicians and voters, which suggests that there is competition on some dimensions and collusion on others.
21-08. Jaakko Meriläinen and Jane Tukiainen. "The Advantage of Incumbents in Coalitional Bargaining". January 1, 2021.
Abstract:
The composition of governing coalitions does not always reflect the relative sizes of the coalition members, but research has not been able to fully reconcile why. We propose that political parties with more (re-elected) incumbent representatives fare better in coalitional bargaining. To evaluate this argument empirically, we construct a data set of parties and governing coalitions in Finnish local governments. Using an instrumental variable strategy that hinges on within-party close elections between incumbents and non-incumbents, we find that, ceteris paribus, having more re-elected incumbents improves a party's coalitional bargaining outcomes. Descriptive evidence suggests that incumbent representation is particularly useful when a party is in a disadvantaged position (e.g., it is ideologically distant from other parties) and when the bargaining environment is more complex (e.g., there are more parties). Lastly, incumbent representation also matters for selection: parties that have more incumbent representatives nominate more incumbents in the municipal executive.
21-09. Arturo Aguilar with Marta Vicarelli, "El Niño and children: medium-term effects of early-life weather shocks on cognitive and health outcomes", Revise & Resubmit at World Development. Latest version: June 2021.
Abstract:
Evidence showing that shocks in early life have long-term consequences is well established in the literature. This paper contributes to our understanding of how this develops and what policies could help counteract the shock's impacts. In a development context, we show that four years after being exposed to exogenous precipitation anomalies during early stages of life, children exhibit lower cognitive development (measured through language, working and long-term memory and visual-spatial thinking) in the magnitude of 0.15 to 0.19 SDs. Lower height and weight impacts are also identied. Food consumption and diet composition appear to be key drivers behind these impacts. Partial evidence of mitigation from the delivery of conditional cash transfers is found.
21-10 Cristian Sanchez, Paulo Bastos "The Effects of Educated Leaders on Policy and Politics: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Brazil.", submitted, October 1,2021.
Abstract:
We examine whether and how the educational background of political leaders matters for policy choices and outcomes. Using data on municipalities in Brazil from 2000–2008, we estimate the effects of electing a more educated leader in a regression-discontinuity design whereby policy inputs and outcomes in municipalities where a highly educated candidate barely won the election are compared with those of municipalities where a highly educated candidate barely lost. The results indicate that highly educated mayors make different choices on the composition of public expenditure, but produce no systematic impact on a variety of measurable outcomes. Additionally, highly educated leaders are not more likely to be reelected, suggesting that they are not perceived as better politicians.
21-11 Cristian Sanchez, Gabriel Cañedo Riedel, "Supply-side Response to Targeted Vouchers". submitted, October 6, 2021.
Abstract:
We examine schools’ responses to a recent targeted voucher reform in Chile. Private schools’ responses to the reform are quicker and larger than public schools’ responses; however, schools in both sectors react to the policy along various margins. Private schools enter and exit the market more often. Public and private schools improve educational inputs related to school infrastructure and the teaching staff. Interestingly, private schools’ fee responses are such that low income students see an increase in the average fee they face in the market, and higher income students see a decrease in the average fee they face.