Past Conferences and Seminars

18
Oct
12:00

Cornell University

"Isolating Peer Effects in the Returns to College Selectivity."

This paper asks how a student’s classmates affect her returns to college. We exploit a “tracking” admission system at a selective Colombian university that led to large differences in mean classmate ability for students in the same programs. In a regression discontinuity design, we find that students in higher-ability classes were more likely to fail courses and drop out, and had lower earnings one decade later. Testable predictions from a human capital model with peer externalities show that individuals learned less in more able classrooms. Our findings suggest that exposure to higher-ability college peers can harm an individual’s career trajectory.

Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa
15
Oct
12:00

University of Geneva

"Farmers to Entrepreneurs."

Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa
11
Oct
12:00

London School of Economics 

"Aggregating Distributional Treatment Effects: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of the Microcredit."

Studies of microcredit show positive and negative treatment effects at certain quantiles of household outcome distributions. I develop new Bayesian hierarchical models to aggregate the evidence on these effects and assess their generalizability. I provide a broadly-applicable limited-information model enforcing quantile monotonicity via variable transformation. Partially discrete outcomes such as profit are aggregated using full-data mixture models. Across all outcomes I find a precise, generalizable zero effect from the 5th to 75th quantiles, and large yet heterogeneous and uncertain effects on the right tails. Households who had previously operated businesses account for the majority of the impact and the uncertainty.
Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa
27
Sep
12:00

Harvard University

"School Vouchers, Labor Markets and Vocational Education."

We provide evidence on the long-run impact of vouchers for private secondary schools, evidence collected twenty years after students applied for the vouchers. Prior to the voucher lottery, students applied to either an academic or vocational secondary school, an important mediating factor in the vouchers’ impacts. We find strong tertiary education and labor market effects for those students who applied to vocational schools with almost no impact on those who applied to academic schools. The labor market gains for vocational students are strongest at the top of the distribution and null at the bottom of the distribution. We find additional long-run impacts on consumption and teen-age fertility. The expected net present value of benefits to participants and to taxpayers was large and positive implying that the program was welfare improving unless net externalities were large and negative.

Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa
20
Sep
12:00

Southern Methodist University (SMU)

"Credit Attribution and Collaborative Work."

We examine a dynamic model of teamwork in which the public attributes credit for success based on its perception of individual efforts. The collaborative behavior varies starkly depending on the shape of marginal effort cost, or project’s “difficulty.” In the unique (interior) equilibrium, higher ability collaborators work less and thus receive lower credit and payoff for “easy” projects, while the reverse holds for “difficult” projects. Despite free-riding, the team equilibrium may involve over-investment. Social efficiency requires over-rewarding collaborative work and under-rewarding solo work. The incentives to team up and the impact of effort monitoring on credit attribution are also investigated.

Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa
13
Sep
12:00

University of Chicago

"Price Regulation in Credit Markets: A Trade-off between Consumer Protection and Credit Access."

Interest rate caps are widespread in consumer credit markets, yet there is limited evidence on its effects on market outcomes and welfare. Conceptually, the effects of interest rate caps are ambiguous and depend on a trade-off between consumer protection from banks’ market power and reductions in credit access. We exploit a policy in Chile that lowered interest rate caps by 20 percentage points to understand its impacts. Using comprehensive individual-level administrative data, we document that the policy decreased transacted interest rates by 9%, but also reduced the number of loans by 19%. To estimate the welfare effects of this policy, we develop and estimate a model of loan applications, pricing, and repayment of loans. Consumer surplus decreases by an equivalent of 3.5% of average income, with larger losses for risky borrowers. Survey evidence suggests these welfare effects may be driven by decreased consumption smoothing and increased financial distress. Interest rate caps provide greater consumer protection in more concentrated markets, but welfare effects are negative even under a monopoly. Risk-based regulation reduces the adverse effects of interest rate caps, but does not eliminate them.

Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa
06
Sep
12:00

UC Berkeley

"Towards a General Large Sample Theory for Regularized Estimators"

Abstract:

We present a general framework for studying regularized estimators; such estimators are pervasive in estimation problems wherein "plug-in" type estimators are either ill-defined or ill-behaved. Within this framework, we derive, under primitive conditions, consistency and a generalization of the asymptotic linearity property. We also provide data-driven methods for choosing tuning parameters that, under some conditions, achieve the aforementioned properties. We illustrate the scope of our approach by studying a wide range of applications, revisiting known results and deriving new ones.

Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa
24
May
12:00

Ignacia Mercadal, Columbia University

Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa
22
May
14:15

Matthew Gentzkow, Stanford University

Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa
17
May
12:00

Karthik Muralidharan, University of California, San Diego

Sala de Seminarios, Santa Teresa