University of Rochester
Past Conferences and Seminars
Bocconi University
"The effects of working while in school: Evidence from Uruguayan lotteries."
Shall we encourage students to work while in school? We provide evidence by leveraging a one-year work-study program that randomizes job offers among students in Uruguay. Using social security data matched to over 120,000 applicants, we estimate an increase of 9% in earnings and of 2 percentage points in enrollment over the four post-program years for treated youth. Survey data indicate that enrolled participants reduce study time, but this does not translate into lower grades. Students mainly substitute leisure and household chores with work. A decomposition exercise suggests that work experience is the main mechanism behind the increase in earnings.
Indiana University
"Econometric Analysis of Functional Dynamics in the Presence of Persistence."
We introduce an autoregressive model for functional time series with unit roots. The autoregressive operator can be consistently estimated, but its convergence rate and limit distribution are di erent in di erent subspaces. In the unit root subspace, the convergence rate is fast and given by T, while the limit distribution is nonstandard and represented as functions of Brownian motions. Outside the unit root subspace, however, the p limit distribution is Gaussian, although the convergence rate varies and is given by T or a slower rate. The predictor based on the estimated autoregressive operator has a normal limit distribution with a reduced rate of convergence. We also provide the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which identi es the permanent and transitory components of functional time series with unit roots, representing persistent stochastic trends and stationary cyclical movements, respectively. Using our methodology and theory, we analyze the time series of yield curves and study the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates.
University of Wisconsin-Madison
"Skill Prices, Occupations, and Changes in the Wage Structure for Low Skilled Men."
This paper studies the effect of the change in occupational structure on wages for low skilled men. We develop a model of occupational choice in which workers have multi-dimensional skills that are exploited differently across different occupations. We allow for a rich specification of technological change which has heterogenous effects on different occupations and different parts of the skill distribution. We estimate the model combining four datasets: (1) O*NET, to measure skill intensity across occupations, (2) NLSY79, to identify life-cycle supply effects, (3) CPS (ORG), to estimate the evolution of skill prices and occupations over time, and (4) NLSY97 to see how the gain to specific skills has changed. We find that while changes in the occupational structure have affected wages of low skilled workers, the effect is not dramatic. First, the wages in traditional blue collar occupations have not fallen substantially relative to other occupations-a fact that we can not reconcile with a competitive model. Second, our decompositions show that changes in occupations explain only a small part of the patterns in wage levels over our time period. Price changes within occupation are far more important. Third, while we see an increase in the payoff to interpersonal skills, manual skills still remain the most important skill type for low educated males.
Cornell University
"Isolating Peer Effects in the Returns to College Selectivity."
This paper asks how a student’s classmates affect her returns to college. We exploit a “tracking” admission system at a selective Colombian university that led to large differences in mean classmate ability for students in the same programs. In a regression discontinuity design, we find that students in higher-ability classes were more likely to fail courses and drop out, and had lower earnings one decade later. Testable predictions from a human capital model with peer externalities show that individuals learned less in more able classrooms. Our findings suggest that exposure to higher-ability college peers can harm an individual’s career trajectory.
University of Geneva
"Farmers to Entrepreneurs."
London School of Economics
"Aggregating Distributional Treatment Effects: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of the Microcredit."
Harvard University
"School Vouchers, Labor Markets and Vocational Education."
We provide evidence on the long-run impact of vouchers for private secondary schools, evidence collected twenty years after students applied for the vouchers. Prior to the voucher lottery, students applied to either an academic or vocational secondary school, an important mediating factor in the vouchers’ impacts. We find strong tertiary education and labor market effects for those students who applied to vocational schools with almost no impact on those who applied to academic schools. The labor market gains for vocational students are strongest at the top of the distribution and null at the bottom of the distribution. We find additional long-run impacts on consumption and teen-age fertility. The expected net present value of benefits to participants and to taxpayers was large and positive implying that the program was welfare improving unless net externalities were large and negative.
Southern Methodist University (SMU)
"Credit Attribution and Collaborative Work."
We examine a dynamic model of teamwork in which the public attributes credit for success based on its perception of individual efforts. The collaborative behavior varies starkly depending on the shape of marginal effort cost, or project’s “difficulty.” In the unique (interior) equilibrium, higher ability collaborators work less and thus receive lower credit and payoff for “easy” projects, while the reverse holds for “difficult” projects. Despite free-riding, the team equilibrium may involve over-investment. Social efficiency requires over-rewarding collaborative work and under-rewarding solo work. The incentives to team up and the impact of effort monitoring on credit attribution are also investigated.
University of Chicago
"Price Regulation in Credit Markets: A Trade-off between Consumer Protection and Credit Access."
Interest rate caps are widespread in consumer credit markets, yet there is limited evidence on its effects on market outcomes and welfare. Conceptually, the effects of interest rate caps are ambiguous and depend on a trade-off between consumer protection from banks’ market power and reductions in credit access. We exploit a policy in Chile that lowered interest rate caps by 20 percentage points to understand its impacts. Using comprehensive individual-level administrative data, we document that the policy decreased transacted interest rates by 9%, but also reduced the number of loans by 19%. To estimate the welfare effects of this policy, we develop and estimate a model of loan applications, pricing, and repayment of loans. Consumer surplus decreases by an equivalent of 3.5% of average income, with larger losses for risky borrowers. Survey evidence suggests these welfare effects may be driven by decreased consumption smoothing and increased financial distress. Interest rate caps provide greater consumer protection in more concentrated markets, but welfare effects are negative even under a monopoly. Risk-based regulation reduces the adverse effects of interest rate caps, but does not eliminate them.
- ‹ previous
- 12 of 16
- next ›
Past Seminars
Fall Seminars 2018
Spring Seminars 2018
Fall Seminars 2017
Spring Seminars 2017
Fall Seminars 2016
Spring Seminars 2016
Fall Seminars 2015
Spring Seminars 2015
Seminars 2014
Seminars 2013
Seminars 2012