El CIE te invita al seminario de Eduardo Perez-Richet , profesor en Science Po
El CIE te invita al seminario de Eduardo Perez-Richet , profesor en Science Po
El CIE te invita al seminario de Chris Blattman, profesor en University of Chicago
El CIE te invita al seminario de Ming Yang, profesor en Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.
El CIE invita al seminario de Gaston Illanes , profesor del Departamento de Economía en Northwestern University.
El CIE te invita al seminario de Bobby Pakzad-Hurson, profesor de economía de Brown University.
El CIE te invita al seminario de Yu Awaya, profesor asistente en University of Rochester.
El CIE te invita al seminario de Liran Einav, profesor de economía de Stanford University.
El CIE te invita al seminario de Miguel Faria-e-Castro, economista de la Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
El Centro de Investigación Económica te invita a la plática del profesor Arik Levinson, profesor de economía de Georgetown University.
New York University
"Should We Ban E-cigarettes? Theory and Evidence."
Electronic cigarettes are one of the most controversial new products of the past decade, due to uncertainty about their health e ects and whether they are primarily a quit aid or a gateway drug for traditional combustible cigarettes. We show that demographics with stronger latent demand for e-cigarettes had steady relative declines in cigarette consumption over 2004-2018 that did not change as e-cigarettes were introduced, suggesting that e-cigarettes had negligible e ects on cigarette consumption. We formalize this intuition in a shift-share econometric strategy that con rms that e-cigarettes are neither complements nor substitutes on average; our con dence intervals rule out that e-cigarettes a ected the 2004-2018 aggregate smoking decline by more than 10 percent in either direction. We carry out a new expert survey to aggregate the state of knowledge about the health e ects of e-cigarettes. There is material disagreement; the average expert believes that e-cigarettes impose externalities and \internalities" (harms to users that they do not correctly perceive) that are 48 and 115 percent as large as those of combustible cigarettes, respectively. We embed these empirical ndings in a behavioral welfare analysis with Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainty. Successfully banning e-cigarettes increases expected social welfare, although it decreases welfare in more than 40 percent of parameter draws.
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